The Geek’s Reading List – Week of November 15th 2013

The Geek’s Reading List – Week of November 15th 2013

Hello

I am an analyst and consultant with 20 years of experience as a sell side technology analyst and 13 years of prior experience as an electronics designer and software developer.

The purpose of the Geek’s Reading List is to draw attention to interesting articles I encounter from time to time. I hope that what I find interesting you will find interesting as well. These articles are not to be construed as investment advice, even though I may opine on the wisdom of the markets from time to time. That being said, it is absolutely important that investors understand the industry in which they are investing, along with the trends and developments within that industry. Therefore, I believe these comments may actually help investors with a longer time horizon.

Please feel free to pass this newsletter on. Of course, if you find any articles you think should be included, please send them on to me!

I blog at www.thegeeksreadinglist.com.

 

Brian Piccioni

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1.        Driverless cars to be introduced in Milton Keynes

Well, they aren’t really cars as much as futuristic golf carts, and the driverless versions  aren’t expected for four years, but it is a suggestion of what may be coming with real cars which will be driverless 10 to 20 years hence.

“The “pods”, which will travel at 12mph (19km/h), will ferry people around Milton Keynes on designated pathways. Twenty driver-operated vehicles will be running by 2015, but it is hoped 100 fully automated versions will be introduced by 2017, the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills said.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-24849948

2.        ‘Safer alcohol’: No hangovers, plus an antidote to sober you up

This sounds a lot like “synthehol” from Star Trek. The problem is, governments generally separate drugs into classes, with alcohol and tobacco being ‘good’ despite well documented ill-effects, and everything else as ‘bad’. So, regardless of how much safer these would be, they’ll be illegal.

“Imagine having a few drinks to ease your nerves before a key meeting or a big date. Maybe you even get a little tipsy, but right before show time you take a special antidote, and within minutes all traces of impairment are gone and you’re fully sober and good to go.”

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-57611811-1/safer-alcohol-no-hangovers-plus-an-antidote-to-sober-you-up/

3.        How long do hard drives actually live for?

We can rest assured the drive vendors know the failure rates are as high as these (and they are high), but it is rather odd this data is not more available. Frankly, looking at these awful figures – along with my own experience – all backups should be to RAID (i.e. fault tolerant) storage. SSDs look better and better all the time. Thanks to my friend Duncan Stewart for this link.

“For more than 30 years, the realm of computing has been intrinsically linked to the humble hard drive. It has been a complex and sometimes torturous relationship, but there’s no denying the huge role that hard drives have played in the growth and popularization of PCs, and more recently in the rapid expansion of online and cloud storage. Given our exceedingly heavy reliance on hard drives, it’s very, very weird that one piece of vital information still eludes us: How long does a hard drive last?”

http://www.extremetech.com/computing/170748-how-long-do-hard-drives-actually-live-for

4.        Spain’s solar police to kick in your door

Spain’s solar program threatened to bankrupt the country, cause skyrocketing power prices, and destabilize the grid. It seems that, under Spanish law, they couldn’t just tear up the contracts, but governments can tax anything they want, so that is the path they chose to undo the damage. Nonetheless, how easy can it be to hide a solar panel – after all, they are big and need to be in the sun …

“As if Spaniards had not already been dissuaded by the potential €60 million fines they face for illegally generating their own solar power, they now have to look forward to a knock on the door from the ‘solar police’. A change to the ruling Popular Party’s (PP) Energy Law allows inspectors to “raid” properties they are suspicious of, armed only with administrative authorization.”

http://www.thelocal.es/20131112/spains-solar-police-to-kick-in-your-door

5.         $4.1m goes missing as Chinese bitcoin trading platform GBL vanishes

Rational discourse with the idiots who “invest” in Bitcoin is nearly impossible. By and large, they are paranoid conspiracy theorists who have neither a basic understanding of capital markets, the history of scams, and, in particular, they have no interest in understanding they are the greater fool. In any event, a popular scam seems to be to set up a Bitcoin “exchange” or “bank” and either make off with or “lose” “customer” (i.e. fool) Bitcoin through a hack. Imagine if banks were unregulated and uninsured as all Bitcoin operations are and the “manager” ensured criminals knew the combination to the safe. Another hat tip to my friend Duncan Stewart for this article.

“Bitcoin is surging in China, but the explosion in digital currency trading has been accompanied by possible fraud and theft. GBL, a Chinese bitcoin trading platform that claimed to be based in Hong Kong, recently shut down – an event that might not be worthy of note had ¥25m ($4.1m) worth of users’ money not disappeared with it.”

http://www.coindesk.com/4-1m-goes-missing-chinese-bitcoin-trading-platform-gbl-vanishes/#

and

http://techland.time.com/2013/11/12/bitcoin-online-exchange-in-czech-republic-hacked/

and

http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/security-it/australian-bitcoin-bank-hacked-1m-stolen-20131108-hv2iv.html

6.        Renault Introduces DRM For Cars

Well, if you are indeed signing a rental agreement, a system which prevents you from absconding makes sense. A battery rental system for EVs makes sense as well as batteries represent much of the value of the vehicle and wear out fairly quickly (as Tesla owners will soon discover). Now the real issue is, will Zoe have an obligation to continue supplying batteries at an affordable price once they realize it is a black hole for money?

“When you buy a Renault Zoe, the battery isn’t included. Instead, you sign a rental contract for the battery with the car maker. In a Zoe owner’s forum, user Franko30 reports that the contract contains a clause giving Renault the right to prevent your battery from charging at the end of the rental period. According to an article in Der Spiegel, the company may also do this when you fall behind on paying the rent for the battery.”

http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20131108/09350825182/renault-introduces-drm-cars.shtml

7.        Why Should Filmmakers and Critics Rethink 3D?

A good, albeit, albeit technical read. I don’t like 3D because it’s not 3D, it’s not realistic, and it is annoying. In fact, I’m disappointed when a movie is 3D. Hopefully the film industry will give up on the format, at least for another few decades.

“At the Tag DF technology forum in Mexico City last July, director James Cameron publicly slammed Hollywood’s abuse of 3D. Neither Iron Man 3 nor Man of Steel needed to be converted, he argued. Cameron has always been a vocal critic of films converted to 3D in post-production, and he is certainly not alone. However, unlike many of 3D’s opponents, the Avatar director could clearly explain why he thinks the 3D does not work.”

http://www.popmatters.com/feature/176134-filmmakers-and-critics-need-to-rethink-3d/

8.        Reconciling 2 Worlds With Windows 8.1

You have to get to the second page to read the author’s comments about how absolutely disastrous Windows 8 and 8.1 is from a user perspective. Like almost all seriously bad errors made by companies and governments in the past, Microsoft is doubling down on its incredibly stupid strategy. They’ll eventually realize their mistake, but a lot of damage will have been done first.

“Just about one year ago, Microsoft gave us two new operating systems. One was a new version of Windows: the one for use with mouse and keyboard, the one whose desktop at this moment lights up hundreds of millions of screens, the one with a software library of four million programs. …”

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/17/technology/personaltech/reconciling-the-2-worlds-of-windows-8.html

9.        Android dominates 81 percent of world smartphone market

Potentially interesting facts and figures, however, the comments about Microsoft are silly: their share is up 156% to less than 5%, with almost all units sold by Nokia (i.e. Microsoft).

“For the first time ever, Android has hit more than 80 percent market share for smartphone shipments worldwide. The new Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker was released on Tuesday by IDC, which detailed third-quarter numbers for all smartphone shipments worldwide. A total of 261.1 million smartphones were shipped during this quarter, 81 percent of which run Google’s operating system. A study by Strategy Analytics last month revealed nearly the same numbers, showing that Android gobbled 81.3 percent of the global smartphone market in the third quarter.”

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57612057-94/android-dominates-81-percent-of-world-smartphone-market

10.   Feds say 3D printed guns explode, can injure users

The ATF has simply demonstrated what I said a number of months ago – plastic phones will explode, resulting in injury and/or death. The unfortunate halfwits who make them will, no doubt, ignore these warnings.

“The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) this week released videos of tests of plastic guns made with 3D printers that show some exploding on the first shot. The explosions could injure users, the testing found.”

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9244054/Feds_say_3D_printed_guns_explode_can_injure_users

11.   Cisco’s disastrous quarter shows how NSA spying could freeze US companies out of a trillion-dollar opportunity

Of course, there are likely numerous reasons for Cisco’s disappointing results than the NSA revelations, however, in the developing world at least, I can believe that the old “Cisco good – Huawei bad” routine doesn’t play as well as it once did.

“Cisco announced two important things in today’s earnings report: The first is that the company is aggressively moving into the Internet of Things—the effort to connect just about every object on earth to the internet—by rolling out new technologies. The second is that Cisco has seen a huge drop-off in demand for its hardware in emerging markets, which the company blames on fears about the NSA using American hardware to spy on the rest of the world.”

http://qz.com/147313/ciscos-disastrous-quarter-shows-how-nsa-spying-could-freeze-us-companies-out-of-a-trillion-dollar-opportunity/

12.   Smartphones 55 percent of global mobile phone sales in third-quarter

As a general rule, when the developing world becomes the “new buyer” of a technology, said technology is nearing the end of its growth phase.

“Smartphone sales accounted for 55 percent of global mobile sales in the third quarter as customers in China and Latin America swapped their old phones for the higher end of the range gadgets, research firm Gartner said on Thursday. Worldwide smartphone sales rose nearly 46 percent from last year to 250.2 million units, it said, while overall mobile phone sales were up less than 6 percent at 455.6 million.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSBRE9AD0HM20131114

13.   Motorola announces the $179 Moto G, a lot of smartphone for not a lot of money

Speaking of which, this is yet another example of a low cost smartphone targeting developing markets, but you can’t keep them out of any other market. The $179 is the “unlocked, unsubsidized, price” (I find it rather frustrating when commentators, in particular, blather on about pricing of subsidized phones). I firmly believe the trajectory of smartphone and tablet pricing is down, and margins will come under strong pressure.

“Following the expansion of its Moto Maker service and a price drop for the Moto X earlier this week, Motorola today announced the Moto G, a new low-cost entry-level smartphone for global markets. The Moto G doesn’t skimp on features, but Motorola is selling it for a rock-bottom price: $179 unlocked and without contract. The company says that its partners plan to offer it for even less.”

http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/13/5096680/motorola-moto-g-announced-price-availability

14.   Wireless spectrum needs to be used, Ottawa warns telecoms

What’s this? The government of Canada has decided to grow a pair with respect to dealing with the communications oligopoly? Just to recap, the robber barons who are the Canadian telecom oligopoly bought a huge block of spectrum “independently” then colluded to park said spectrum out of use by competitors. They even went so far as to form a JV, because that isn’t anti-competitive or anything is it? As a result, I pay $300/month to said oligopoly for 4 MPBS Internet. Welcome to the third world. I can’t help but wonder and hope if this is not an opening shot.

“Industry Canada says telecom companies that have been sitting on wireless spectrum for years will have to use it or lose it starting next March. In a news release Thursday, Industry Minister James Moore said wireless companies will lose the right to use wireless spectrum they already paid for if it’s not being used to offer services to Canadians by March 2014. The spectrum is in the 2,300- and 3,500-MHz band and unrelated to the upcoming auction of new, more powerful 700-MHz spectrum.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/wireless-spectrum-needs-to-be-used-ottawa-warns-telecoms-1.2426612

15.   Graphene Supercapacitors Ready For Electric Vehicle Energy Storage, Say Korean Engineers

Graphene is great, graphene is wonderful, but until production costs come down a few orders of magnitude, treat all such breakthroughs with deep skepticism. Also, supercapacitors have use in EVs: I have seen them used in hydrogen fuel cell powered forklifts.

“Conventional batteries take so long to charge that they cannot efficiently store braking energy. But now graphene supercapacitors that store almost as much but charge in just 16 seconds could do the job instead.”

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/521651/graphene-supercapacitors-ready-for-electric-vehicle-energy-storage-say-korean-engineers/

16.   Advertising, Bundling, Community and Criticism

Sourceforge was once a safe repository for open source software. Like many such communities, once it had a large enough database it was sold to a larger company which, understandably wanted to see a return on investment. Sourceforge elected to begin distributing malware (unwanted software, toolbars, etc., that are difficult to uninstall). Not surprisingly users – and, in particular software developers – have reacted by abandoning the site as word spread that it was distributing malware. Now they are doing damage control. Options abound, so I recommend you not download from Sourceforge, unless you want to spend an hour or two figuring out how to strip malware from your computer.

“Over the last days, we heard a number of concerns around how our business practices affect the community sentiment. A few concerns were expressed by several developers, included the GIMP community, about confusing ads on SourceForge pages. Along with that, we also heard complaints about the DevShare program. We want you to be assured that we are always listening to you, learning from you, and taking action on your feedback.”

http://sourceforge.net/blog/advertising-bundling-community-and-criticism/

17.   With BlackBerry’s Future Uncertain, Pentagon Readies a Contingency Plan

I don’t know how important this is, but as Blackberry circles the drain it is topical. Like many cloud services, the Blackberry network requires that Blackberry’s servers remain up and running, so if the company is sold (more likely it will be broken up as scrap) any customer had better hope the owners continue operating those servers as the number subscribers evaporates. At some point, the plug is going to get pulled, and all units if the field will, effectively ‘go’.

“The Defense Department, owner of 470,000 BlackBerrys, is distancing itself from the struggling vendor while moving ahead with construction of a departmentwide app store and a system for securing all mobile devices, including the latest iPhones, iPads, and Samsung smartphones and tablets.”

http://www.nextgov.com/mobile/2013/11/blackberrys-future-uncertain-pentagon-readies-contingency-plan/73556/

18.   Inside Ad Tech Fraud: Confessions of a Fake Web Traffic Buyer

Given market hysteria over social networking stocks it is worth ruminating on how easy it is to fake page views, web traffic, membership, etc.. Like carbon credits, in many ways this is a situation where neither the buyer nor the seller is truly interested in knowing the truth about the commodity.

“Online advertising has a fraud problem. Millions of ad impressions are being served to bots and non-human traffic, and ad tech companies are doing little to stop it. Digiday spoke with a former publishing executive who said he knowingly purchased fraudulent traffic and sold it on to advertisers in the past year. In fact, it was his former company’s business model. Here’s what he said: …”

http://digiday.com/publishers/confessions-bot-traffic-buyer/

19.   Complete Image with Asterisk and FreePBX

Asterix and FreePBX are both open source switching and PBX software for Linux. The fact that these now run on a $45 BeagleBone Black (or, indeed Raspberry Pi) shows how powerful these inexpensive devices are, and how Open Source/Open Hardware can pressure traditional business models.

“As an open source, web-based PBX solution, FreePBX (FreePBX.org) is easy to customize and adapt to your changing needs. FreePBX can run in the cloud or on-site, and is currently being used to manage the business communications of all sizes and types of businesses from small one person SOHO businesses, to multi-location corporations and call centers. The FreePBX Ecosystem provides you with the Freedom and Flexibility to custom design business communications around your needs.”

http://www.beaglebone-asterisk.org/

20.   Quackcast Podcast

I really enjoy this podcast. The creator is Dr. Mark Crislip, an infectious disease specialist who really hates SCAM (Supplements, Complimentary, And Alternative Medicine) and delights in destroying the published “research” associated with this nonsense. He has a great sense of humor and you can learn a lot about the practice of (real) medicine as well as the weakness of anti-vaccine arguments, and so on.

http://podgallery.org/quackcast/

 

 

7 comments on “The Geek’s Reading List – Week of November 15th 2013

  1. Re: item #16 above… SourceForge continues to be a safe place from which to download Open Source Software. For the DevShare program, 3 projects are currently engaged in this pilot, out of over 300,000 projects on our site.

    Kind Regards – Daniel Hinojosa, SourceForge Community Manager

    • Daniel

      Thank you for your comment.

      Lets start with definitions: I consider malware to be any software or configuration changes downloaded and/or installed onto my computer without my explicit agreement. This includes toolbars, trackers, changes to default search engine, etc.. I consider explicit agreement to be just that: I have to accept explicitly the download and/or installation for it to take effect. For example, this past weekend I had to update my Flash player. McAfee anti-virus was downloaded and installed concurrently, without my consent, requiring me to uninstall the McAfee malware. In this case it was rather easy, however, you know as well as I do that most people lack the skills to remove even that basic level of malware. I now consider Adobe to be an untrustworthy download site.

      In the past few months, I have downloaded several packages from Sourceforge which included malware along with the desired software. I do not remember the specifics, however, I do remember the hours spent figuring out how to remove said malware from my system. This wasn’t just a case of running a software uninstaller. It may be (and based on your assertion, probably is the case) that Sourceforge has no direct involvement in the distribution of said malware and I confounded your new business model with these infections/installations. For that I am sorry.

      Nonetheless, recent experience has shown that the odds of downloading malware from Sourceforge seem much higher than in the past. So far as I am concerned, therefore, for whatever reason Sourceforge is not a safe place to download software from so I only download reluctantly and onto a quarantined environment.

      You might consider a feedback system whereby users could flag downloads as including malicious (i.e. malware) elements. The voting/review system you employ is easily gamed (as all such systems are). I would suggest a malicious/malware flage being indelible until reset and/or verified by Sourceforge. This would reassure people like me who are vehemently anti-malware.

      regards
      Brian

      • Hi Brian,

        First, thank you for the detailed reply. It turns out that we are on the same page. I have tested our current vendor’s installer and personally verified that by *only* clicking the decline button, only the software requested from SourceForge is installed; no other boxes need to be checked, etc. In this case, I believe we have met your bar for this being defined as malware-free. Our blog post on this details the compliance aspects.

        You may have downloaded a project that was doing an installer themselves so that they could gain funding. If on that package you clicked decline and still had malware installed on your system, that was not our package , and exactly the issue we are trying to address with DevShare, because, like you believed- we get blamed when a project does that outside of our purview. That makes us look bad and ends up leaving malware on folks computers. We don’t want that either.

        Please recall that we are currently only using this program on 3 projects from our site of over 300,000 OSS projects. By doing this ourselves, we can help projects get the funding they seek, and help protect our users. All things considered, this is a better result, no?

        Best regards,

        Daniel Hinojosa – SourceForge Community Manager

      • Daniel
        Thank you for your reply. As I conceded, I likely conflated your new business model with the cause for the increasing prevalence of malware on Sourceforge. Yes, if your program explicitly requires approval, then it is not malware.

        I should note, however, that clicking ‘decline’ is not the same thing as explicitly approving. Negative option marketing is illegal in some places and always sleazy.

        That being said, from a user perspective, what of the 299,997 other OSS downloads? Last night I spoke with a friend, who is a developer at a Fortune 500 firm about this and he remarked that he had also recently been infected with malware via Sourceforge, though, in this case it was malware in the narrow definition of the word. He too has come to associate Sorceforge as an unsafe site.

        From a user perspective, whether Sourceforge the corporation is delivering the malware or whether it is the people who are distributing software on your site, they are still getting malware via Sourceforge. There is no quality control and apparently no mechanism by which users can flag malicious downloads. Heck – even Reddit allow you to flag posts as misleading, spam, etc.. How hard could it be to implement a system as I suggested?

        The reality is, for whatever reason, Sourceforge has become a kind of a ‘honey pot’ for the distribution of malware and I think people should be aware of this. Perhaps this is a contributing reason why GIMP and others are choosing to abandon Sorceforge?

        Remember, Sourceforge is a kind of social media site. Once any social media site stops being a ‘go to’ place, it soon withers to insignificance. Sourceforge’s owners might consider taking corrective action as I have suggested before it is too late.

        regards
        Brian

  2. Hi again Brian,

    I am extraordinarily confident that such malware is not from our program. It would be good to know what project caused this so that we could investigate. Seriously, if this is happening, we need to know so that we can work with those projects to help them clean up such things.

    Sincerely,

    Daniel Hinojosa – SourceForge Community Manager

    • I do not recall the specifics of what my friend downloaded, but I will ask him if he has the details.

      I would certainly be more confident downloading from a site, in particular Sourceforge, which has served the community well for many years, if I believed there was some form of ‘quality control’ with respect to unwanted downloads, malware, etc.. Of course, my definition of malware may differ from that of others, however, knowing ahead of time what will be downloaded, besides the desired application, would be very helpful.

      So, an application might be flagged (expect some ‘false flags’), investigated, and if there were ‘extras’ those ‘extras’ would be listed prominently. This would encourage honest distributors to simply list what their package does. The dishonest would would bare the mark of Cain.

      I have no wish to see Sourceforge whither, and I think this would help.

      Best of luck.

      Brian Piccioni

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